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GeneratorChecker

Power Outage Risk in Oklahoma

Ice storms and severe weather drive repeated outage events, concentrated in winter and spring.

Oklahoma ice storms are a heating-season problem first, which means the critical electric load is often the furnace blower rather than a summer comfort device.

56 federal declarations in 10 years across fire, ice, and severe-storm drivers (2014–2023)
FEMA National Risk Index (NRI)
82.3 / 100
Relatively High
FEMA Declarations (2014-2023)
56 Major incidents
Highest Risk Window
Dec-Feb

Ice and Severe Storm Preparedness

JanJunDec

What drives outage risk in Oklahoma

Wildfire 86.9
FEMA Decl. 19
Winter Weather 80.5
FEMA Decl.
Hurricane 38.3
FEMA Decl.
Biological N/A
FEMA Decl. 17

Why Oklahoma is different

Oklahoma's grid threat is not hurricanes but ice. The state sits in a corridor where warm Gulf moisture collides with Arctic air masses, producing ice storms that coat power lines and tree limbs with accumulations that can exceed one inch. In October 2020, an unusually early ice storm struck while trees still carried full foliage. The added surface area on leaves trapped far more ice than bare winter branches would, and the result was severe: more than 370,000 customers lost power statewide.

Oklahoma Gas & Electric, the state's largest utility serving roughly 700,000 customers, called it the second-largest storm in company history. Rural electric cooperatives reported over 4,200 destroyed poles and 9,000 damaged cross arms, with estimated infrastructure damage exceeding 26 million dollars. Some cooperative members did not regain power for more than two weeks.

For backup sizing, ice storms present a distinct challenge. They tend to strike during cold weather, when heating loads are high and solar recharge hours are at their shortest. A portable station sized only for summer cooling will fall short during a winter ice event that demands sustained heating support.

Notable Recent Events

Severe Ice Storm (2020)

Federal disaster declaration for severe ice storms causing widespread power outages and infrastructure damage.

Source: FEMA DR-4575

Severe Storms and Tornadoes (2019)

Federal disaster declaration for severe storms and tornadoes causing widespread damage across central Oklahoma.

Source: FEMA DR-4438

Evidence trail

State source notes

These notes trace the editorial claims above back to FEMA, DOE, utility, or other cited records.

6 notes
  1. 1 OpenFEMA API

    FEMA declaration count (56) from OpenFEMA API, deduplicated by disaster number, DR/EM/FM types, 2014-2023.

  2. 2 FEMA NRI county layer

    NRI composite score (82.3) from FEMA NRI county layer, population-weighted to state level.

  3. 3 FEMA disaster declaration records

    Oklahoma Ice Storm DR-4575 and Severe Storms DR-4438 from FEMA disaster declaration records.

  4. 4 Oklahoma DEMHS Situation Update

    Oct 2020 ice storm outages (370K customers): Oklahoma DEMHS Situation Update 11 (2020-11).

  5. 5 City of Midwest City storm recovery report

    OG&E storm severity (700K customers, second-largest): City of Midwest City storm recovery report (2020-11).

  6. 6 OAEC ice storm update

    Co-op infrastructure damage (4,200 poles, 9,000 cross arms, $26M): OAEC ice storm update (2020-11).

Structured FEMA NRI, HHS emPOWER, NOAA Storm Events, and EIA methodology is documented separately on the methodology page.

NRI top hazard is Ice Storm, while Fire leads FEMA declarations with 19 of 56 total — mostly grassfire and wildfire incidents rather than the main home-backup load case.

Historical Storm Patterns in Oklahoma

NOAA storm-event records filtered to outage-relevant event types for Oklahoma. Counts reflect historical storm-event assignments, not confirmed utility outages.

Official data GeneratorChecker analysis

Analysis window

2005-01 to 2024-12

Included storm-event records

17,364

Source as of

2026-03

Included exact NOAA event types for Oklahoma: Thunderstorm Wind, Tornado, High Wind, Strong Wind, Flash Flood, Flood, Winter Storm, Ice Storm, Freezing Rain, Heavy Snow, Blizzard.

Hazard seasonality

In this filtered NOAA record set for Oklahoma, May has the highest monthly count (3,980 records) , and Thunderstorm Wind is the leading event type. This chart shows frequency in NOAA records, not how severe a specific outage may be.

Sorted Jan–Dec
Jan 758
Feb 1,026
Mar 943
Apr 1,814
May 3,980
Jun 2,994
Jul 1,786
Aug 1,564
Sep 632
Oct 701
Nov 579
Dec 587

Top outage-relevant event types

  1. 1. Thunderstorm Wind 9,682
  2. 2. Flash Flood 2,273
  3. 3. Tornado 1,649
  4. 4. High Wind 1,255
  5. 5. Winter Storm 992
  6. 6. Flood 689

Counties with highest historical outage-relevant storm event frequency

  1. 1. TULSA 772

    94.7% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  2. 2. OKLAHOMA 673

    91.7% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  3. 3. TEXAS 617

    49.4% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  4. 4. CLEVELAND 462

    92.4% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  5. 5. LE FLORE 441

    92.1% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  6. 6. OSAGE 383

    89.8% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

Coverage and limitations

With the current Oklahoma NWS county crosswalk, mapped forecast zones are effectively 1:1 with counties, and no unresolved forecast zones were present in this state contract.

Direct county match

82.0%

Mapped from forecast zone

18.0%

Not assigned to county ranking

0.0%

Unresolved forecast zones

0

  • Forecast-zone events with no current NWS county crosswalk entry are excluded from county-level rankings.
  • Forecast-zone events are mapped with the current NWS county crosswalk, which may not exactly match historical zone boundaries across the full analysis window.
  • Counts reflect historical NOAA storm event records, not confirmed utility outage counts.
  • Marine event types remain excluded from this state contract even when coastal impacts may be operationally relevant.

Medical Outage Sensitivity in Oklahoma

County-level HHS emPOWER counts for electricity-dependent Medicare beneficiaries in Oklahoma.

Official data

44,956 Medicare beneficiaries in Oklahoma have claims associated with electricity-dependent medical equipment. (HHS emPOWER, 2026-03)

County-level HHS emPOWER records for this state. Medicare enrollment data only. 77 counties are included in this state snapshot.

Counties by total count

  1. 1. Oklahoma 7,134
  2. 2. Tulsa 6,444
  3. 3. Cleveland 2,323
  4. 4. Canadian 1,318
  5. 5. Comanche 1,234

Counties by share of Medicare beneficiaries

Counties with at least 1,000 Medicare beneficiaries
  1. 1. Alfalfa 9.1%

    Smaller Medicare base; interpret this percentage with extra caution.

  2. 2. Grant 8.6%

    Smaller Medicare base; interpret this percentage with extra caution.

  3. 3. Dewey 8.4%

    Smaller Medicare base; interpret this percentage with extra caution.

  4. 4. Coal 8.3%

    Smaller Medicare base; interpret this percentage with extra caution.

  5. 5. Beaver 8.2%

    Smaller Medicare base; interpret this percentage with extra caution.

GeneratorChecker analysis

Counties with higher concentrations may face elevated community-level demand for backup power during outages. This does not indicate individual medical necessity.

Limitations: Reflects Medicare beneficiaries with claims associated with electricity-dependent medical equipment. Does not capture non-Medicare or uninsured populations. HHS masks cells from 1 to 10 as 11.

GeneratorChecker BPI BPI v1.0 · NOAA 2005-2024 · HHS emPOWER 2026-03

Backup Priority Index in Oklahoma

The GeneratorChecker Backup Priority Index is a county shortlist for backup planning, combining historically frequent outage-relevant storm activity with larger county counts of electricity-dependent Medicare beneficiaries. It is planning context, not a forecast or an outage guarantee.

Official data GeneratorChecker analysis

BPI version

v1.0

Analysis window

2005-01 to 2024-12

Matched counties

77

Counties qualify for the public BPI only when both signals land at or above the 80th percentile within the state. The shortlist excludes low-base medical counties and counties with less than 30% direct NOAA county matching.

Qualifying counties shown on the page: 5.

Top BPI counties in this state

Percentiles are computed within Oklahoma only and are not comparable across states.

Source notes
  1. 1. OKLAHOMA

    County FIPS 40109

    Storm frequency · Top 1% statewide Medical exposure · Top 1% statewide

    At-risk Medicare count

    7,134

    Storm-event records

    673

    Direct NOAA county match

    91.7%

  2. 2. TULSA

    County FIPS 40143

    Storm frequency · Top 1% statewide Medical exposure · Top 1% statewide

    At-risk Medicare count

    6,444

    Storm-event records

    772

    Direct NOAA county match

    94.7%

  3. 3. CLEVELAND

    County FIPS 40027

    Storm frequency · Top 4% statewide Medical exposure · Top 3% statewide

    At-risk Medicare count

    2,323

    Storm-event records

    462

    Direct NOAA county match

    92.4%

  4. 4. COMANCHE

    County FIPS 40031

    Storm frequency · Top 10% statewide Medical exposure · Top 5% statewide

    At-risk Medicare count

    1,234

    Storm-event records

    362

    Direct NOAA county match

    80.1%

  5. 5. LE FLORE

    County FIPS 40079

    Storm frequency · Top 5% statewide Medical exposure · Top 13% statewide

    At-risk Medicare count

    906

    Storm-event records

    441

    Direct NOAA county match

    92.1%

How to read the BPI

  • BPI qualifies a county only when both the NOAA outage-relevant storm signal and the HHS emPOWER medical-count signal are at or above the 80th percentile within the state.
  • The medical signal uses total county count of electricity-dependent Medicare beneficiaries, not the share of beneficiaries within each county.
  • Counties with weak direct NOAA county matching stay out of the public BPI list even when their storm percentile is high.
  • Percentiles are computed within each state only and are not comparable across states.
  • The BPI is a planning layer. It does not claim a forecast, a utility reliability score, or an individualized medical-risk assessment.

Utility and grid context in Oklahoma

State-level utility structure from official EIA Form 861 data, shown as planning context alongside the weather and medical layers.

Official data

Data year

2024

Utilities in scope

33

Residential customers represented

1,774,382

94.5% of in-scope residential customers in Oklahoma are served by utilities that report complete annual SAIDI and SAIFI pairs to EIA for 2024, excluding major event days.

GeneratorChecker does not blend statewide SAIDI or SAIFI values across IEEE and Other Standard reporters in this public layer.

This block identifies the utility structure behind the state, but it does not score your local grid reliability.

Market structure by residential customers

  1. IOU (3 utilities) 68.5% 1,215,117 customers
  2. Cooperative (25 utilities) 26.3% 466,281 customers
  3. Municipal (5 utilities) 5.2% 92,984 customers

Largest in-scope utilities by residential customers

  1. 1. Oklahoma Gas & Electric Co 710,123

    IOU

  2. 2. Public Service Co of Oklahoma 501,093

    IOU

  3. 3. Oklahoma Electric Coop Inc 58,544

    Cooperative

  4. 4. City of Edmond - (OK) 39,532

    Municipal

  5. 5. Northeast Oklahoma Electric Co 37,871

    Cooperative

GeneratorChecker analysis
  • GeneratorChecker does not merge IEEE and Other Standard reporters into a single statewide reliability number.
  • Reliability coverage in this public block is based on utilities with complete annual SAIDI and SAIFI pairs filed to EIA for 2024, excluding major event days.
  • Some in-scope utilities filed partial reliability values in 2024, so GeneratorChecker uses coverage context here rather than publishing a statewide reliability score.

Size your backup for Oklahoma

Use winter outage assumptions for baseline and keep surge headroom for compressors.

MOST POPULAR

24-hour heating-support essential

Heating-system support, communications, and medical continuity during a winter outage.

Gas Furnace Fan (Blower) WiFi Router CPAP Machine

Load

1189W

Target

24h

Minimum

46,900 Wh

This scenario keeps your home's gas furnace or boiler blower running during an outage. It does not mean a portable power station can run resistive space heaters.

Size this scenario in calculator

Extended cold snap

Add refrigeration to preserve food during a multi-day grid outage while keeping heating-system support online.

French Door Refrigerator Gas Furnace Fan (Blower) WiFi Router CPAP Machine

Load

1396W

Target

48h

Minimum

110,100 Wh

Consider expandable systems or solar for events beyond 48 hours.

Size this scenario in calculator

Critical Note: No single portable power station in our database covers the full 24-hour baseline at this load (46,900 Wh target vs. 6,144 Wh max in our current database). Use solar recharge, load rotation, or expandable systems for longer events.

Data Sources & Methodology

NRI risk details

Composite score: 82.3 / 100

Rating: Relatively High

Top modeled hazards: Ice Storm, Tornado, Heat Wave

Hurricane score: 38.3

Winter Weather score: 80.5

Wildfire score: 86.9

FEMA declaration breakdown

Total (2014-2023): 56

Most recent: 2023-07-19 Severe Storm

Type Count
Fire 19
Biological 17
Severe Storm 12
Severe Ice Storm 4
Flood 2
Tornado 2
Sizing formula

Required Wh = (Total Load W × Target Hours / Inverter Derate) × Safety Factor

Inverter derate: 0.70 (30% real-world loss)

Safety factor: 1.15

Rounding: Up to nearest 100 Wh

Historical utility-reported and modeled data. Your experience may vary.

Frequently Asked Questions

How high is outage risk in Oklahoma?

Oklahoma has an NRI composite risk score of 82.3 (Relatively High), with 56 federal declarations from 2014 to 2023. NRI top hazard is Ice Storm, while Fire leads FEMA declarations with 19 of 56 total — mostly grassfire and wildfire incidents rather than the main home-backup load case.

What backup size should I target in Oklahoma?

For the primary scenario on this page (24-hour heating-support essential), the estimated minimum is 46,900 Wh for a 24-hour target. Refine this in the calculator with your actual devices.

Why do modeled risk and declaration history sometimes differ?

NRI is a modeled risk index based on hazard exposure, vulnerability, and expected loss. FEMA declarations reflect federally declared incidents. They answer different questions — use both signals together for planning.

What are the most common outage-planning mistakes in Oklahoma?

Assuming any large-capacity station can start critical motors without validating surge margins. See the common mistakes section above for more state-specific pitfalls.