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GeneratorChecker

Power Outage Risk in New York

Coastal flooding and winter storms can turn underground substation failures into multi-day restorations in dense urban and suburban areas.

In New York, underground grid design reduces tree-related failures but makes storm-surge and flood damage far harder to restore once substations are inundated, as Superstorm Sandy demonstrated in 2012.

19 federal declarations across 6 hazard types (2014-2023)
FEMA National Risk Index (NRI)
91.5 / 100
Relatively High
FEMA Declarations (2014-2023)
19 Major incidents
Highest Risk Window
Year-round

Flood and Winter Reliability Constraints

JanJunDec

What drives outage risk in New York

Winter Weather 89.9
FEMA Decl.
Hurricane 87.5
FEMA Decl. 5
Wildfire 34.5
FEMA Decl.
Biological N/A
FEMA Decl. 4

Why New York is different

New York's grid vulnerability is unusual because much of its core infrastructure sits underground. Consolidated Edison, the utility serving New York City and Westchester County, relies on buried cables and substations to deliver power across one of the densest urban areas in the country. That design protects against wind and falling trees but creates a different exposure: flooding.

When Superstorm Sandy struck in October 2012, storm surge overwhelmed underground substations across Lower Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Staten Island. Con Edison reported that more than one million customers lost power, five times the outage count from Hurricane Irene a year earlier. Salt water intrusion into substation equipment required lengthy drying and testing before re-energization. The company reached 98 percent restoration within 12 days. Across the broader Northeast, the U.S. Department of Energy documented roughly 8.5 million customer outages in eight states during Sandy.

For backup sizing in the New York metro area, storm surge is the defining risk. Underground equipment damaged by flooding takes longer to repair than downed overhead lines, making outages of a week or more a realistic planning baseline even where infrastructure is buried.

Notable Recent Events

Hurricane Ida Remnants (2021)

Federal disaster declaration for severe flooding from hurricane remnants affecting the New York metro area.

Source: FEMA DR-4615

Evidence trail

State source notes

These notes trace the editorial claims above back to FEMA, DOE, utility, or other cited records.

5 notes
  1. 1 OpenFEMA API

    FEMA declaration count (19) from OpenFEMA API, deduplicated by disaster number, DR/EM/FM types, 2014-2023.

  2. 2 FEMA NRI county layer

    NRI composite score (91.5) from FEMA NRI county layer, population-weighted to state level.

  3. Hurricane Ida Remnants DR-4615 from FEMA disaster declaration records.

  4. 4 Consolidated Edison 2012 Sustainability Report

    Con Edison Sandy outages (1M+ customers, 5x Irene, 98% in 12 days): Consolidated Edison 2012 Sustainability Report, Superstorm Sandy section (2013-06).

  5. 5 U.S. EIA Today in Energy

    Regional Sandy outages (8.5M customers, 8 states): U.S. Energy Information Administration, todayinenergy detail #8730 (2012-11).

Structured FEMA NRI, HHS emPOWER, NOAA Storm Events, and EIA methodology is documented separately on the methodology page.

NRI winter weather score of 89.9 is the highest individual hazard score across flood, winter weather, and hurricane categories for New York.

Historical Storm Patterns in New York

NOAA storm-event records filtered to outage-relevant event types for New York. Counts reflect historical storm-event assignments, not confirmed utility outages.

Official data GeneratorChecker analysis

Analysis window

2005-01 to 2024-12

Included storm-event records

24,862

Source as of

2026-03

Included exact NOAA event types for New York: Hurricane (Typhoon), Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression, Thunderstorm Wind, Tornado, High Wind, Strong Wind, Flash Flood, Flood, Storm Surge/Tide, Winter Storm, Ice Storm, Freezing Rain, Heavy Snow, Blizzard.

Hazard seasonality

In this filtered NOAA record set for New York, Jul has the highest monthly count (5,024 records) , and Thunderstorm Wind is the leading event type. This chart shows frequency in NOAA records, not how severe a specific outage may be.

Sorted Jan–Dec
Jan 1,751
Feb 2,002
Mar 1,561
Apr 1,087
May 1,803
Jun 2,982
Jul 5,024
Aug 3,317
Sep 1,519
Oct 1,166
Nov 932
Dec 1,718

Top outage-relevant event types

  1. 1. Thunderstorm Wind 12,331
  2. 2. Flash Flood 2,978
  3. 3. Winter Storm 2,360

    3 events were not mapped to a county ranking.

  4. 4. High Wind 1,876

    16 events were not mapped to a county ranking.

  5. 5. Heavy Snow 1,679

    17 events were not mapped to a county ranking.

  6. 6. Flood 1,529

    4 events were not mapped to a county ranking.

Counties with highest historical outage-relevant storm event frequency

  1. 1. SUFFOLK 1,023

    51.4% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  2. 2. HERKIMER 804

    70.5% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  3. 3. SARATOGA 802

    69.0% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  4. 4. ULSTER 783

    67.7% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  5. 5. ALBANY 763

    69.2% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

  6. 6. COLUMBIA 754

    68.7% of listed records were matched directly to this county.

Coverage and limitations

With the current New York NWS county crosswalk, mapped forecast zones are effectively 1:1 with counties; unresolved legacy or coastal forecast zones fall into the excluded bucket.

Direct county match

67.6%

Mapped from forecast zone

32.1%

Not assigned to county ranking

0.2%

Unresolved forecast zones

2

  • Forecast-zone events with no current NWS county crosswalk entry are excluded from county-level rankings.
  • Forecast-zone events are mapped with the current NWS county crosswalk, which may not exactly match historical zone boundaries across the full analysis window.
  • Counts reflect historical NOAA storm event records, not confirmed utility outage counts.
  • Marine event types remain excluded from this state contract even when coastal impacts may be operationally relevant.

Medical Outage Sensitivity in New York

County-level HHS emPOWER counts for electricity-dependent Medicare beneficiaries in New York.

Official data

127,389 Medicare beneficiaries in New York have claims associated with electricity-dependent medical equipment. (HHS emPOWER, 2026-03)

County-level HHS emPOWER records for this state. Medicare enrollment data only. 62 counties are included in this state snapshot.

Counties by total count

  1. 1. Kings 11,254
  2. 2. Suffolk 9,741
  3. 3. Queens 9,477
  4. 4. Erie 8,236
  5. 5. Nassau 8,138

Counties by share of Medicare beneficiaries

Counties with at least 1,000 Medicare beneficiaries
  1. 1. Hamilton 7.4%

    Smaller Medicare base; interpret this percentage with extra caution.

  2. 2. Saint Lawrence 6.6%
  3. 3. Allegany 6.5%
  4. 4. Cattaraugus 6.3%
  5. 5. Franklin 6.1%
GeneratorChecker analysis

Counties with higher concentrations may face elevated community-level demand for backup power during outages. This does not indicate individual medical necessity.

Limitations: Reflects Medicare beneficiaries with claims associated with electricity-dependent medical equipment. Does not capture non-Medicare or uninsured populations. HHS masks cells from 1 to 10 as 11.

GeneratorChecker BPI BPI v1.0 · NOAA 2005-2024 · HHS emPOWER 2026-03

Backup Priority Index in New York

The GeneratorChecker Backup Priority Index is a county shortlist for backup planning, combining historically frequent outage-relevant storm activity with larger county counts of electricity-dependent Medicare beneficiaries. It is planning context, not a forecast or an outage guarantee.

Official data GeneratorChecker analysis

BPI version

v1.0

Analysis window

2005-01 to 2024-12

Matched counties

62

Counties qualify for the public BPI only when both signals land at or above the 80th percentile within the state. The shortlist excludes low-base medical counties and counties with less than 30% direct NOAA county matching.

Qualifying counties shown on the page: 4.

Top BPI counties in this state

Percentiles are computed within New York only and are not comparable across states.

Source notes
  1. 1. SUFFOLK

    County FIPS 36103

    Storm frequency · Top 1% statewide Medical exposure · Top 2% statewide

    At-risk Medicare count

    9,741

    Storm-event records

    1,023

    Direct NOAA county match

    51.4%

  2. 2. ERIE

    County FIPS 36029

    Storm frequency · Top 18% statewide Medical exposure · Top 5% statewide

    At-risk Medicare count

    8,236

    Storm-event records

    611

    Direct NOAA county match

    63.8%

  3. 3. WESTCHESTER

    County FIPS 36119

    Storm frequency · Top 15% statewide Medical exposure · Top 13% statewide

    At-risk Medicare count

    4,739

    Storm-event records

    635

    Direct NOAA county match

    70.1%

  4. 4. ONEIDA

    County FIPS 36065

    Storm frequency · Top 19% statewide Medical exposure · Top 18% statewide

    At-risk Medicare count

    2,480

    Storm-event records

    575

    Direct NOAA county match

    76.9%

How to read the BPI

  • BPI qualifies a county only when both the NOAA outage-relevant storm signal and the HHS emPOWER medical-count signal are at or above the 80th percentile within the state.
  • The medical signal uses total county count of electricity-dependent Medicare beneficiaries, not the share of beneficiaries within each county.
  • Counties with weak direct NOAA county matching stay out of the public BPI list even when their storm percentile is high.
  • Percentiles are computed within each state only and are not comparable across states.
  • The BPI is a planning layer. It does not claim a forecast, a utility reliability score, or an individualized medical-risk assessment.

Utility and grid context in New York

State-level utility structure from official EIA Form 861 data, shown as planning context alongside the weather and medical layers.

Official data

Data year

2024

Utilities in scope

15

Residential customers represented

7,323,009

99.5% of in-scope residential customers in New York are served by utilities that report complete annual SAIDI and SAIFI pairs to EIA for 2024, excluding major event days.

GeneratorChecker does not blend statewide SAIDI or SAIFI values across IEEE and Other Standard reporters in this public layer.

This block identifies the utility structure behind the state, but it does not score your local grid reliability.

Market structure by residential customers

  1. IOU (8 utilities) 85.0% 6,226,040 customers
  2. Other (1 utilities) 14.1% 1,029,955 customers
  3. Municipal (6 utilities) 0.9% 67,014 customers

Largest in-scope utilities by residential customers

  1. 1. Consolidated Edison Co-NY Inc 3,064,038

    IOU

  2. 2. Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. 1,532,294

    IOU

  3. 3. Long Island Power Authority 1,029,955

    Other

  4. 4. New York State Elec & Gas Corp 792,300

    IOU

  5. 5. Rochester Gas & Electric Corp 351,481

    IOU

GeneratorChecker analysis
  • GeneratorChecker does not merge IEEE and Other Standard reporters into a single statewide reliability number.
  • Reliability coverage in this public block is based on utilities with complete annual SAIDI and SAIFI pairs filed to EIA for 2024, excluding major event days.
  • Some in-scope utilities filed partial reliability values in 2024, so GeneratorChecker uses coverage context here rather than publishing a statewide reliability score.

Size your backup for New York

Prioritize essential loads and indoor-safe operation, then add comfort loads.

MOST POPULAR

Essential 12-hour backup

Core household loads for a short-duration event: refrigeration, medical support, and communications.

French Door Refrigerator WiFi Router CPAP Machine

Load

338W

Target

12h

Minimum

6,700 Wh

Covers most non-major weather events. Check surge compatibility for the refrigerator compressor.

Size this scenario in calculator

Extended winter apartment outage

Heating-system support, refrigeration, communications, and medical continuity during a longer cold-weather outage.

French Door Refrigerator WiFi Router Gas Furnace Fan (Blower) CPAP Machine

Load

1396W

Target

24h

Minimum

55,100 Wh

This assumes your home uses a gas furnace or boiler that still depends on blower power. For longer events, add solar or a second battery.

Size this scenario in calculator

Critical Note: No single portable power station in our database covers the full 12-hour baseline at this load (6,700 Wh target vs. 6,144 Wh max in our current database). Use solar recharge, load rotation, or expandable systems for longer events.

Data Sources & Methodology

NRI risk details

Composite score: 91.5 / 100

Rating: Relatively High

Top modeled hazards: Riverine Flooding, Winter Weather, Strong Wind

Hurricane score: 87.5

Winter Weather score: 89.9

Wildfire score: 34.5

FEMA declaration breakdown

Total (2014-2023): 19

Most recent: 2023-07-22 Severe Storm

Type Count
Hurricane 5
Biological 4
Severe Storm 3
Snowstorm 3
Flood 2
Winter Storm 2
Sizing formula

Required Wh = (Total Load W × Target Hours / Inverter Derate) × Safety Factor

Inverter derate: 0.70 (30% real-world loss)

Safety factor: 1.15

Rounding: Up to nearest 100 Wh

Historical utility-reported and modeled data. Your experience may vary.

Frequently Asked Questions

How high is outage risk in New York?

New York has an NRI composite risk score of 91.5 (Relatively High), with 19 federal declarations from 2014 to 2023. NRI winter weather score of 89.9 is the highest individual hazard score across flood, winter weather, and hurricane categories for New York.

What backup size should I target in New York?

For the primary scenario on this page (Essential 12-hour backup), the estimated minimum is 6,700 Wh for a 12-hour target. Refine this in the calculator with your actual devices.

Why do modeled risk and declaration history sometimes differ?

NRI is a modeled risk index based on hazard exposure, vulnerability, and expected loss. FEMA declarations reflect federally declared incidents. They answer different questions — use both signals together for planning.

What are the most common outage-planning mistakes in New York?

Buying a high-watt model without a clear load plan, resulting in short runtime for essentials. See the common mistakes section above for more state-specific pitfalls.